Summer 2025: the weather forecaster has announced the weather for June, July, and August

Summer 2025: the weather forecaster has announced the weather for June, July, and August

The weather in June, July and August 2025 will be hot in some places across most of Europe, with uneven humidity. It is difficult to predict weather conditions nowadays, as it is impossible to determine precisely the weather conditions in a certain area with a period of more than a month (seasonal or semi-annual). It is in such reports and forecasts that it is still possible to speak confidently about the amount of precipitation, future temperature trends and the approximate distribution of atmospheric pressure. Their accuracy is usually not able to exceed 60-65%, which is significantly lower than in ten-day or monthly forecasts. This was reported to Meteoprog by weather forecaster Igor Kibalchich.

Spring in Ukraine in 2025 was quite contrasting, as March saw record high temperatures, and May surprised many residents of the country with prolonged cold weather and frequent frosts, especially in the western and northern regions.

Since 2020, temperatures in May have almost always been within normal limits or cool. All of this is a consequence of very rapid warming in the Arctic region. In fact, the situation shows that in the circumpolar region, higher temperatures provoke the effects of a smaller inter-latitudinal temperature gradient. There are also meridional synoptic processes over Europe in spring and early summer, which contribute to the significant penetration of Arctic air masses into southern latitudes.

The meteorological summer has already begun in most of Ukraine, with the exception of the western regions, where the period of abnormally cold weather is still ongoing. June, as recent statistics show, is generally a moderately warm month with sufficient rainfall. In 2025, the first calendar month of summer in Europe is expected to be warm, with maximum deviations from the norm in the Balkan Peninsula, Poland and Turkey.

Weather for June

June is also expected to be warm in Ukraine. The average monthly temperature may reach +18…+23 °C, which is 0.5 to 1.8 °C above normal. The expert expects precipitation to be below normal, with some places in the west and north being 20-40% below normal. No record heat is expected this month, but the recurrence of dangerous weather events, such as heavy rains, squalls and hail, may be quite high. In this case, it is worth keeping a close eye on forecasts and operational storm warnings from official sources.

Weather for July

July is traditionally the hottest month in Ukraine. This month, the daytime temperature reaches +35 °C and above, and at night it does not drop below +20 °C (so-called tropical nights). The year 2025 will be no exception.

A period with temperatures above +30 °C is likely in the second half of the month. As Kibalchych noted, such indicators have practically become the norm for a long time for our entire region, and prolonged heat waves are becoming more and more extreme, especially in the southern, central and eastern regions. Precipitation in July in Ukraine is expected to be slightly below normal, which is why there are risks of wildfires and soil drought in some areas. In July, the average temperature is also forecast to be 0.7 to 2.0°C above normal and will range from +20 to +25°C.

August weather

The weather in August 2025 is expected to be hot in most parts of Ukraine. This is traditionally the case in the first half of the month.

During this period, local synoptic processes and the dominance of tropical and subtropical air masses are usually recorded. They are of desert origin (from northern Africa or Central Asia). As a result, the temperature background is likely to be 2.0 to 2.5°C above normal. However, we should not expect record heat, similar to that recorded last year. Precipitation, according to the forecaster, will be traditionally lower than normal, especially on the Left Bank, where there is a risk of prolonged drought.

Overall, the average summer temperature in 2025 is forecast to be about 1.1 to 2.5°C above the climate norm. At the same time, none of the months will be record-hot, as there are currently no prerequisites for this.

Precipitation in the summer of 2025 will be unevenly distributed, with heavy downpours recorded in some places. In general, the summer season is marked by thunderstorms and an increase in fire safety in the second half of the summer. Prolonged hostilities and the risk of fires in ecosystems are increasing.

Igor Kibalchych presented a map of the distribution of the average summer temperature anomaly in Europe (June, July, August) based on the calculations of 11 global weather forecast centres.

As a reminder, thunderstorms were forecast in Kyiv at the end of May.