Harsh winter of 2026: energy expert cites reasons for evacuation of Kyiv

Kyiv must be evacuated if homes are without heat for three days. This was announced by Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Centre, in a comment to the Telegraph publication.

The expert stressed that in the event of large-scale attacks on the capital’s thermal energy infrastructure, a situation may arise where it will be impossible to restore the operation of thermal power plants for several days. Under such conditions, the city will be faced with the need to take emergency measures, in particular, draining water from heating systems and beginning an organised evacuation of residents.

Risks for the capital in the event of attacks on thermal power plants Kharchenko noted that Kyiv is extremely vulnerable in the event of damage to thermal power plants, as most buildings are connected to a centralised heat supply system. If the thermal power plant stops working, the water in the heating systems will cool down quickly without the circulation of the heat carrier, which can lead to the freezing of pipes and the subsequent destruction of the internal infrastructure of buildings. In such a situation, it will be almost impossible to restore the heat supply without a complete overhaul of the networks.

According to the expert, a critical point is considered to be a three-day absence of heat in homes at an air temperature of around minus ten degrees Celsius and below. If there is no prospect of restoring the CHPP’s operation during this time, the city authorities must act immediately – begin the procedure of draining water from buildings to prevent the destruction of systems, and at the same time prepare a plan for the evacuation of the population. This is the only way to minimise large-scale losses and prevent catastrophic consequences for the capital’s housing stock.

Three days – the deadline for making decisions Kharchenko stressed that procrastination in such a situation could be very costly. If we do not react in time and drain the water from the system, the heating pipes in the buildings will simply burst from the frost, making it impossible to even technically restore heat after the power supply is restored. Therefore, timely decision-making is key – three days without heat is the limit after which radical action must be taken.

The expert stressed that this scenario is not being considered as a panic assumption, but as a practical plan of action in case of a repeat of massive Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. According to him, winter could be a serious test for Ukrainian cities, and the capital is no exception, so preparations for any developments must be thorough and timely. Kyiv, with its complex centralised heating system, cannot afford a prolonged shutdown of its thermal power plants, as the consequences of such a collapse would be much more serious than just temporary inconvenience.

Heating season under threat

The expert noted that the issue of Kyiv’s readiness for winter is particularly acute at present. Despite the preparations and repairs that have been carried out, the risk of attacks on key facilities remains high. Therefore, according to Kharchenko, it is important to have a clear plan of action in case of emergency to avoid chaos and save residents from a possible humanitarian crisis.

He concluded that energy companies and city authorities must act in a coordinated manner, because even a short-term loss of heat at low temperatures poses a direct threat to people’s lives and health. If it is impossible to restore heating systems within a few days, the only option is evacuation, which must be organised quickly and clearly, without delays or mistakes.

We will remind you that the head of the Ukrainian capital stated that almost all houses in Kyiv are connected to heating.